Chapter 2: Developing a Monitoring Strategy

Overall Assessment for Clandestine Testing

The monitoring algorithm of the 1970´s and 1980´s was based on the assumption that the United States would be monitoring a country with a) a sophisticated nuclear arsenal, and b) extensive testing expertise and experience. In addition, the monitoring task would require high confidence to constrain a testing nation to a specific threshold, and slight violations could be attributed to miscalculation in the anticipated yield of the nuclear device. Today, monitoring is directed also towards countries that a) have not tested before and thus have no experience with conducting nuclear weapons tests and containing the radioactive materials; b) are testing a device whose yield is likely to be uncertain; c) are testing in an area where tests have never been conducted before; and d) may be attempting an untried evasion scenario. As a result, many of the evasion scenarios which have been used to establish nuclear monitoring requirements are not credible for the initial test of a newly developed first generation nuclear weapon. In addition, the cost of being caught is higher because there is no legitimate excuse for a violation. While the 1974 TTBT contains a "whoops" provision for small unintentional violations of the threshold, under a comprehensive test ban treaty "you are either pregnant or not".

Old Situation New Situation
Intent:
Manage vertical proliferation Prevent horizonatal & vertical proliferation
Parties:
Nuclear states Nuclear states and First-timers
(knows weapons & tests) (unknown device & procedures)
Stucture:
Basically bilateral Global
(NATO/Warsaw Pacts) (100+ countries)
Task:
Police a threshold Detect an occurrence
(degree of violation) (yes or no)
Approach:
Monitor down to specific level with high confidence Monitor all seismic events and increase confidence
Emphasis for Monitoring
Police threshold Increase confidence

Nuclear Testing and Nonproliferation

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Return to: Chapter II: Challenging Past Assumptions
Continue to:Chapter II: Developing a New Solution